SGF Receipts Analysis from SuperGrok

June 20, 2025

Most observers don't put too much stock into the accuracy of Kansas fiscal projection. They are difficult to get correct. Regardless, actual receipts are more instructive. I asked my friend, Grok, to compare two year-over-year Kansas tax receipt reports and here is what the Grokster provided. Grok Link: https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMg%3D%3D_33a83000-812b-4470-ab78-db9ab818a551 The two reports are over there on the right if you want to look at the source information.

Key Points

Total receipts decreased slightly from 2024 to 2025 but performed better relative to estimates in 2025.

Individual income taxes increased significantly, likely due to strong wage growth, showing a positive trend.

Corporation income taxes decreased, possibly reflecting economic slowdowns, with mixed performance against estimates.

Sales and use taxes remained above estimates but showed a slight decline, suggesting resilient yet moderating consumer spending.

Other excise taxes declined, indicating a potential downward trend, while other taxes stayed stable above estimates.

Non-tax revenues showed mixed results, with agency earnings improving and interest income underperforming.

Conclusion

Overall, the trends suggest a mixed economic picture. Individual income taxes show strength, likely driven by wage growth, while corporation taxes and other excise taxes indicate challenges. The state’s ability to meet or exceed estimates in 2025, despite some declines, points to resilience in certain areas, though further data would help confirm long-term trends.

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